4. Data Analysis Based Market Prioritisation.

---

THE GIST

Look beyond the most commonly used proxy.  

Arc'teryx has said it wants 200 North American stores and roughly $2 billion in North American revenue by 2030. That's about double where it is now. So which markets should be targeted?

The BEA outdoor recreation GDP by state is often used as a proxy for outdoor culture. The problem is that it's a state-level figure that's significantly inflated by tourism. For instance: Hawaii scores 6.1% , but that's predominantly tourists hiking, and perhaps not residents buying $600 technical shells. A state where tourists hike isn’t necessarily a state where residents buy $600 shells.

To address this, I built a five-variable scoring model across 25 US metros with more proxies. (1) Lululemon store density by metro (because where Lululemon thrives, the Arc'teryx income and lifestyle profile exists). This is more a directional indicator, since the consumers of the two brands not necessarily congruent. (2) REI store density by metro: because REI only expands into markets with real outdoor participation. Plus (3) Google Trends demand signal, (4) median income, and (5) BEA at low weighting for directional confirmation.

The headline finding is Seattle. It scores 85 on Google Trends for Arc'teryx, has 11 REI stores (the most in the dataset) and has one Arc'teryx brand store. 

One true thing: The proxy widely used for evaluating outdoor culture and market potential is may not be reliable on its own. 

Note: The full model, raw data, and sensitivity table are available. Drop me a message.

A note of thanks: my amazing sister, Kyra Goswamy, contributed her help generously to the data work. I’m grateful for her time and patience.